Is hiring in the US starting to cool off?

Will the weak US jobs report change the Fed’s July accounts?

Employment in the US is expected to slow in June, as economists bet that higher interest rates, slowing growth and a sharp decline in stocks will weigh on labor market growth.

The Labor Department is expected to report that the United States added 275,000 jobs in June, according to a Bloomberg survey, down from 390,000 jobs in May. The unemployment rate is expected to remain steady at 3.6 percent. Average hourly earnings are expected to rise 0.3 percent per month, also in line with the May figure.

The Fed argued that there was scope for aggressive rate hikes due to the strength of the US economy, including the labor market. Evidence of a slowdown could dampen the Fed’s appetite for massive hikes. Weak data in the US, including Friday’s Institute of Supply Management manufacturing data, helped lower market expectations about Fed policy.

The market is currently betting that the Fed’s key rate will be 3.2 percent by the end of the year, compared to 3.4 percent a week ago.

In the jobs report, “We are even concerned that single payroll printing will fundamentally change [Fed’s] said Ian Lingen, head of US pricing strategy. Furthermore, “the likelihood that this will be the month when hiring turns is limited.” Kate Dugwid

To what extent will Turkish inflation rise?

While the US and Europe fear annual inflation will approach 10 percent, Turkey’s official rate is expected to rise around 80 percent when June data is released on Monday.

President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s refusal to allow the central bank to raise borrowing costs – along with rising global commodity prices and a weak lira – has put prices on a seemingly endless upward trajectory. Where will you stop? Turkish officials claim that the rate will decrease around the beginning of next year thanks to the numerical impact of high inflation at the end of 2021.

They have also taken steps aimed at curbing credit growth and unveiling savings plans that seek to bolster the lira. Goldman Sachs expects inflation to fall slightly to 65 percent by the end of 2022. But Per Hammarlund, chief emerging markets analyst at SEB, warns of the risks of an alternative scenario.

“I see a big risk that we will see accelerated inflation given that the government is more focused on maintaining growth than containing inflation,” he said. The government’s decision last week to raise the minimum wage for the second time in six months may exacerbate the problem.

Hammerlund said, “Huh [Erdoğan] You are trying to offset the loss of purchasing power but that means you will have upward inflation. Every time they do that, it fuels new inflation.” Laura Beetle

Will the Reserve Bank of Australia raise interest rates?

The Reserve Bank of Australia became one of the first central banks in the advanced economy to act against post-lockdown inflation when it abandoned its yield curve control policy in November last year. In June, it raised the benchmark interest rate by 0.5 percentage point, the highest in 22 years.

Despite the tightening of policy, the Reserve Bank of Australia had to raise its forecast for headline inflation, which is now expected to peak at around 7 per cent at the end of this year, well above its target range of 2 to 3 per cent. Analysts at Bank of America say that number is still too conservative and that the Reserve Bank of Australia will move to raise interest rates by another half a percentage point, to 1.35 per cent, when it meets on Tuesday.

Given the tightness of the country’s labor market, the bank has plenty of room to do so, argue Westpac analysts, who add that a liquidity rate of less than 1.5 per cent will remain in “stimulus territory,” something the RBA itself noted at its last meeting. Minutes. William Langley

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